Gain a Stake in Farming
Take a position on the weather, prices, and policy outcomes that move American agriculture, starting at $25. When you're right, you get paid.
As heard on Farm4Profit
AcreHedge on the Farm4Profit Podcast
How staking on farm risk works, and why a market price on weather beats a gut feel.
Watch the episodeon YouTube
As heard on Ag Squawk
AcreHedge on the Ag Squawk Podcast
How prediction markets put a price on farm risk, and where they fit next to the crop insurance you already run.
Watch the episodeon YouTube
Anhydrous Ammonia - $910/ton or more by Friday Oct 16?
Gain a stake in Midwestern anhydrous ammonia prices for the period ending October 16, 2026
Urea Pricing - $725/ton or more by Friday Oct 16th?
Gain a stake in Midwestern urea prices for the period ending October 16, 2026
Will a new Farm Bill be Enacted before Election Day 2026?
Gain a stake in important legislation that affects all American farmers
Corn Yield More Than 177.5 bu/acre on the Oct 9 WASDE Report?
Gain a stake in the Corn Yields as reported by the USDA
U.S. Diesel Prices - Above $6.30/gallon by September 28?
Gain a stake in or hedge your diesel fuel prices until September 28, 2026
U.S. Diesel Prices - Above $5.55/gallon by September 14?
Gain a stake in or hedge your diesel fuel prices until September 14, 2026
Corn Yield More Than 179 bu/acre on the Sept 11 WASDE Report?
Gain a stake in the Corn Yields as reported by the USDA
Will Zoe Kent (@farmwithzoe) Plant Her Corn by May 23rd?
Gain a stake in Zoe's success (or failure) to plant her corn crop on time
Will Zoe Kent's Average Daily Low Temps be >66 F in late July?
Gain a stake in the daily low temps, which will affect Zoe's corn crop yields
Recently Settled
Ready to gain your stake in farming?
Create a free account in under a minute. No obligation — you only pay when you buy a contract, starting at $25.
What is AcreHedge?
AcreHedge is a revolutionary platform that lets anyone gain a stake in farming. Now for the first time you can actually participate in farming by backing up event challenges with real money that allow farmers and agricultural stakeholders to hedge their real-world risks, like volatile input costs, changing crop yields, drought, adverse weather, disease outbreaks, government policy changes, and more.
$25 minimum purchase
Funds used to purchase either Yes or No sides of event challenges go into a pool from which winnings are paid out
Up to 15x+ payouts
When you're right, you get paid. The more lopsided the market, the higher the payout for contrarians.
How Prediction Markets Work
It's simpler than you think. Anyone who is interested in agriculture can gain a stake in farming in 3 steps.
Pick an event
Browse markets covering well-known farmers, and the issues that affect them. Or you can look at input costs, factors that impact commodity prices like yield, government policy changes, weather, and more. Find one that is interesting to you.
Take a position
Think the event will happen? Buy YES. Think it won't? Buy NO. Start with a $25 minimum purchase. All funds go into a pool from which winners are paid out.
Get paid if you're right
Winners split the entire pool. If drought hits and you bought YES on drought, then you get paid. If a farmer doesn't complete their task as defined, and you bought NO, then you get paid. Simple.
Why Farmers Are Using Prediction Markets
A revolutionary new way to hedge farming risks
Prediction markets are a powerful way to hedge risks that are otherwise un-hedgeable or are too expensive to insure. No paperwork and waiting months for payouts. If you bought into an event challenge and the conditions are met, then you get paid.
Fast resolution and payment
If the event happens and you were on the right side of the challenge, then you get paid within 1-3 business days. Our event challenges include questions about input costs like fertilizer and diesel, factors that affect prices such as yield and weather, and changes in government policy. These can be used to directly hedge your exposure to these variables.
Hedge risks that are more specific and relevant to your farm
Use our Request Market tool to request event markets that cover specific risks that affect you and your operation. If market demand is big enough, then you can gain a direct way to hedge that risk.
Common Questions
What is AcreHedge?
AcreHedge has launched the first prediction market that is focused on farmer and ag related topics. We are currently in the evaluation, prototype phase to test, on a limited basis, a series of topics and events that are relevant and useful to farmers, farmer-adjacent industries, and to any individual trader who is interested in agricultural topics.
The goal is to provide trading and hedging strategies for risks that are otherwise un-hedgeable or are too expensive to insure through conventional products.
In order to offer these hedging strategies, AcreHedge is developing and evaluating a balancing model that calculates odds and pricing based on the amounts that have been contributed on both sides of discretely defined events that resolve to only Yes and No states at the end of a pre-determined time period. All funds received go into a pool and are distributed to the winners of the event challenges who correctly selected either Yes or No. Neither AcreHedge nor any of its content partners collect commissions or other transaction fees from the amounts contributed to the pools or distributed to winners.
Why trade event markets on AcreHedge?
We have partnered with several of the most popular farmer influencers, and a leading podcaster, to develop markets that track events and risks that affect their farms. For the first time, you can not only follow your favorite farmer, but you can also gain an actual stake in their success (or failure). Put your money to work and get re-invested in farming!
For farmers and other professional users, AcreHedge is developing the trusted market for farming risk management. We have experts write the event challenge definitions, so there is no ambiguity and full transparency on how events are resolved. Enhance your existing insurance strategy with the power of prediction markets. Hedge risks that are otherwise un-hedgeable or are too expensive to insure. No paperwork, adjusters, or waiting months for payouts. We are dedicated to supporting you and winning your trust.
How can I buy or sell on AcreHedge?
After an event challenge opens for trading, you can buy and sell either the “Yes” or “No” sides using Market or Limit Orders, specifying trades in either Dollar ($) amounts, or in number of units.
Is this gambling?
No. AcreHedge's event challenges are structured as not-for-profit pools (see “How is the payout calculated” below)
What happens if I win?
You will be paid $1 per contract that you hold. The funds are released to your wallet, which can be used for trading, or may be withdrawn.
What happens if I lose?
You lose the amount you spent on contracts—nothing more. There are no margin calls, no hidden fees, and no additional obligations. Your maximum loss is always just the amount you put into a particular challenge.
How do I withdraw my winnings?
Winnings are deposited to a wallet after the market settles. You can request a withdrawal at any time, and funds are sent via Paper Check or ACH transfer to your bank account.
How is the payout calculated?
AcreHedge uses a proprietary market balancing model, the AcreHedge Balancing Model or (“ABM”) that calculates odds/pricing based on the total money that has been invested on both sides of the event challenges. When events are live, the Yes and No units are bought and sold using a custom central limit order book. All funds from unit purchases go into a shared pool. When the event resolves, winners receive $1 per contract they hold. All funds that go into the pool (less bank or card processing fees) are distributed to the winners. Neither AcreHedge, nor our partners including @farmwithzoe are collecting commissions or transaction fees from the event winners.
Can I request a new / customized market?
Absolutely, simply click here or on the upper part of the home page to make the request. We may ask you some questions for clarification. If there is enough interest from market participants, then we will launch your event challenge.
Gain your stake in farming today
Create a free account in under a minute and back your take on the outcomes that move American farms. No obligation — you only pay when you buy a contract.
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